Volatility in currency exchange rates decreases the predictability of international aid. In a new report from the Expert Group for Aid Studies (EBA), Númi Östlund takes the perspective of partner budgets and finds that exchange rate fluctuations have important consequences for Swedish aid effectiveness.

Developing countries and donors have stated, in several international agreements, that increased predictability is a key objective in the development of international aid. Númi Östlund provides recommendations on how to make Swedish aid more predictable, for example through providing funding in major currencies backed by forward contracts managed by the Swedish National Debt Office (Riksgälden) and through exploring innovative financial solutions for smaller currencies.

The seminar aims at fostering a broader discussion of how donor countries (with Sweden in focus) can work further to manage exchange rate risks and to increase the predictability of aid.



Arne Bigsten, EBA

PRESENTATION OF THE REPORT – How predictable is Swedish aid? A study of exchange rate volatility

Númi Östlund, author


Númi Östlund; Catharina Cappelin, Ministry for Foreign Affairs; Alan Whiteside, professor emeritus at the University of KwaZulu-Natal; Georg Andrén, Diakonia and CONCORD Sweden.

Moderator: Arne Bigsten



Georg Andrén, secretary general of Diakonia and chairman of CONCORD Sweden.

Arne Bigsten, member of the EBA, senior professor at the Department of Economics at Gothenburg University and director of the Center for Globalization and Development at the University of Gothenburg.

Catharina Cappelin, deputy director at the Department for International Development Cooperation, Ministry for Foreign Affairs.

Alan Whiteside, professor emeritus at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Númi Östlund, report author and former senior performance auditor at the Swedish National Audit Office. Since 2017 director at AidHedge.


Please register by Friday, May 26, at or by e-mail


Östlund, N. (2018), How predictable is Swedish aid? A study of exchange rate volatility, EBA Report 2018:03, Expert Group for Aid Studies, Sweden.

Plats: Medelhavsmuseet, Fredsgatan 2, Stockholm

Datum: 28 maj, 2018

Tid: 14.00 - 15.30


Ämnen: Bilateralt samarbete, Biståndsformer, Policyramverket för svenskt bistånd

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